How has Germany’s collapsed coalition scored on climate?

When Germany’s coalition took office three years ago, each party came with its own ideas of how to cut the nation’s emissions. Negotiations led to what was regarded as an ambitious compromise. 
At the time, Robert Habeck, the Green Party economy and climate minister, said the agreement would “accelerate the transition to renewable energy, restructure industry and finally put us on the 1.5-degree-Celsius [2.7 F] path,” referring to the warming threshold set out in the Paris climate accord. 
But the recent implosion of the coalition government — made up of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s center-left Social Democrats, the Greens and neoliberal Free Democrats — partly because of climate policy, has set the country on a different path. 
With the SPD and Greens now leading the minority government until the February election, what has the coalition government achieved in terms of climate action?
Just nine out of 27 planned climate and environment laws have been implemented by the SPD-led government. One law that did make it onto the books, despite fierce opposition from the public and the FDP, was the Building Energy Act. It aims for a gradual increase in the number of homes and buildings heated with renewable energy, and for 6 million oil and gas heating systems to be replaced with heat pumps by 2030.
“The law is better than its reputation, but disastrous in terms of how it was communicated,” said Claudia Kemfert, an energy economist with economic think tank DIW Berlin. But with only some 1.8 million new heat pumps installed, the country is lagging far behind the target, she added. 
The legislative process for other potential laws, such as implementing climate-resilient forestry practices, tax breaks for electric company cars and stronger marine protection, barely made it out of the starting block, if at all. And the promised “climate bonus” — financial relief to compensate for increases in the national CO2 price implemented in the heating and transport sectors — never made it to consumers. 
That’s because a constitutional court ruling last year enforcing Germany’s limits on debt left a gaping €60 billion chasm in the federal finances, forcing the coalition to cut or halt investments in climate and infrastructure initiatives. 
Meanwhile, German environmental NGO BUND is taking legal action against the Federal Climate Action Act — meant to be the foundation of the country’s climate policy — because it says the law is insufficient. 
The act, amended in summer 2023 after a long dispute, brings forward Germany’s aim of being climate neutral to 2045 instead of 2050. The country also aims to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 65% instead of 55% this decade. 
“Germany is absolutely not on a 1.5-degree path, because we have climate targets that do not do justice to the state of scientific knowledge,” said Tina Löffelsend, climate expert at BUND. 
An analysis by NGO Climate Action Tracker said the law weakens Germany’s climate policies and will make it almost impossible to achieve net zero by 2045. The amendment abolished binding annual goals for emissions cuts in individual sectors like transport, building, energy and agriculture in favor of an overall target, according to the independent scientific project that tracks government climate policies. 
The change takes pressure off individual ministries like transport and building, which consistently miss their emissions targets. 
But Dirk Messner, head of Germany’s Federal Environment Agency (UBA), is confident the country will meet its 2030 targets, even though “we are not doing brilliantly in all sectors.” Messner added in a statement that more needs to be done — particularly in the transport sector — to phase out climate-damaging subsidies. 
One target the country will likely miss, according to analysts, is its 2030 goal of having 15 million electric cars on the road. Currently, the number is 2.3 million, including hybrid models. At the end of 2023, the coalition was forced to cancel subsidies for purchasing e-cars because of the budget deficit. 
Expansion of electric car charging infrastructure is also lagging, with Oliver Blume, CEO of beleaguered German carmaker Volkswagen Group, calling for renewed support in building out the network. German carmakers, which are playing catch-up in the e-car segment, are seeing falling vehicle sales, with Volkswagen planning thousands of layoffs.
Renewable energy expansion is doing much better than e-mobility, according to Claudia Kemfert. “Important framework conditions have been significantly improved in the solar energy and wind energy sectors,” she said, although she also advocates for stronger climate action. 
The share of green energy in the country’s electricity mix is now over 60%, up from 43% in 2021. If Germany reaches its 80% by 2030 goal “would be an important milestone in achieving the climate targets,” added Kemfert.
At the same time, Russia’s war in Ukraine has made it more difficult to implement climate policies set out in the coalition agreement, said Kemfert. 
After Russia’s invasion in 2022, the country cut billions of cubic meters of pipeline gas supplies to Europe. Germany was particularly dependent on Russian gas. Energy prices skyrocketed, forcing the country to act quickly. 
“It must be acknowledged that this [energy] crisis was handled well,” said BUND climate analyst Löffelsend. 
Germany built new liquefied natural gas (LNG terminals) in the North Sea and diversified its supply with gas from other countries. But this also created an overcapacity, “which will cost us all dearly,” said Löffelsend. Like coal and oil,  LNG is a fossil fuel and burning it drives planetary heating.
UBA’s Messner told DW that concerns the outbreak of the war would see a “coal and fossil fuel renaissance” in Germany turned out to be unfounded. “This is mainly due to the very successful expansion of renewable energies.”
Last year, German emissions fell around 10%, the sharpest decline since 1990. Still, that’s not all down to climate policy. A sluggish economy and declines in production also played a role, said UBA. 
With a political crisis at home to manage, Chancellor Olaf Scholz cancelled his attendance at the UN climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan last week. Negotiators at the summit are trying to hash out a new financing target for developing countries to cope with climate disasters and transform their energy systems. Rich and poor states are at odds over who should pay and how much. 
Germany is negotiating as part of the EU delegation and is still a strong partner despite domestic troubles, Jennifer Morgan, the country’s special envoy for climate policy, told DW. 
“We have a full mandate from the existing minority government,” said Morgan last week in Baku, adding that Germany stands by its climate commitments. 
Still, Oxfam climate analyst Jan Kowalzig fears the prospect of an entirely new government in February and Germany’s mixed climate record at home could hold back partner countries from bolstering their own efforts. Germany has traditionally played a leading role in climate policy. 
To keep global warming under 1.5 degrees Celsius , the limit agreed in Paris, states must collectively cut emissions 42% by the end of the decade. And the world is currently a long way off that target. 
This article was originally written in German.
Edited by: Anke Rasper and Tamsin Walker